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SPC Day 4-8 Outlook

Updates are issued at 400 am CST/CDT (0900/1000 UTC) - Current UTC time: Feb 25 2021 6:53 pm

Day 1

D4	Sunday Feb 28 2021 - Monday Mar 1 2021	D7	Wednesday Mar 3 2021 - Thursday Mar 4 2021
D5	Monday Mar 1 2021 - Tuesday Mar 2 2021	D8	Thursday Mar 4 2021 - Friday Mar 5 2021
D6	Tuesday Mar 2 2021 - Wednesday Mar 3 2021	(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to:
1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions,
2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or
3) minimal run-to-run continuity.

POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears highly unlikely during the entire period (e.g. less than a 30% probability for a regional severe storm area across the CONUS through the entire Day 4-8 period).

        



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